Here we are, ladies and gentlemen, T minus 30 minutes until the biggest annual event in American cinema. And really, it has been a pretty damn good year for film. Overall, I think it was maybe not quite as great as the previous year, but a great number of films managed to impress me quite a bit.

First of all, in lieu of posting a gigantic ~4,000 word entry about my favorite films of the year, let me just give you my Top 10 List with no added descriptions or anything:

10: The Devil & Daniel Johnston

9: The Prestige

8: A Scanner Darkly

7: Little Miss Sunshine

6: Brick

5: Babel

4: Letters from Iwo Jima

3: The Departed

2: Children of Men

1: Pan’s Labyrinth

HM: The Queen, V for Vendetta, Caché

So, now that that whole thing is out of the way, I’m going to discuss the nominations, as well as give my official opinion on what I think should win as well as what I predict will win.

Best Picture

The first category is Best Picture. The nominees this year are considerably different from last year, for the most part, since there isn’t really a clear-cut winner (though last year the “clear-cut winner” lost to a major dark horse (that, honestly, wasn’t that good)). I can say with a fair amount of certainty that The Queen and Little Miss Sunshine will most likely not win. However, the latter has the advantage of a late-summer release, with DVDs shipping before the nods were released, which seemed to help Crash a lot last year. Also, it’s a crowd-pleaser, so I guess it would be best to not count it out all together. The Queen will not win though. You can quote me on that. As far as the other 3, I think that each one has an equal chance of winning. The Departed is my favorite to win. I would have said Children of Men would have been a shoo-in to win, but I guess the Oscar voters thought differently, as did the studio, who basically dropped the film off into theaters like an orphaned child on a doorstep. But I digress. The Departed has a star-studded cast, a fantastic director, poppy dialogue, a twisty, edge-of-your-seat plot, and enough action to keep everyone happy. Not to mention it’s fantastic. Babel has a good chance because of Crash’s win last year, though it plays out the “multiple, interweaving storylines” thing a hell of a lot better than Paul Haggis’ rather mediocre effort last year. It’s also full of dynamite performances from actors fairly unknown to most Americans. Honestly, I think everyone in the movie (except for Brad & Cate) deserves an acting nod. Letters from Iwo Jima is probably the only one that I think has the least chance among the 3 front-runners. It’s a great film, but it’s quite long-winded and at times monumentally depressing (not that Babel isn’t equally sad). But seriously, it’s the first film to make me shed tears since American History X, and honestly it’s pretty hard to do.

My pick: The Departed

Predicted winner: The Departed

Best Actor:

I’m at quite a disadvantage here, since I haven’t seen any of the films for which the actors are nominated. Sad, I know, but honestly, save for maybe Half Nelson and Venus, the other films aren’t supposed to be that good. And come on, Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond? I heard his accent in the trailer; it was bloody awful. Probably the worst attempt at a South African accent I’ve ever heard. So he’s right out in my book. I’ve heard Ryan Gosling’s performance is great, but I don’t think that Half Nelson got enough exposure to give him much of a chance. The other three have a decent chance of winning. Will Smith’s always a favorite, and The Pursuit of Happyness had more success at the box office than probably any of the others combined. The two front runners, however, are Peter O’Toole and Forest Whitaker. I would have to say the former is my favorite to win. Though I haven’t seen Venus, I have heard his performace is stunning, and plus it would be good way to top off a legendary career. Whitaker, however, got the most hype, and in Hollywoodland, hype is everything. I predict that he’ll be walking away with the statue, which is fine by me, as he delivers an amazing performance as well.

My Pick: Peter O’Toole, Venus

Predicted Winner: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Best Actress:

I’m going to say it right off the bat: Helen Mirren has this one locked up. Though I wasn’t a huge fan of The Queen, her performances was so spot-on, I thought I was looking at Elizabeth herself. Not to mention she got an insane amount of pre-awards hype for it. I really loved Penelope Cruz in Volver, though I know she has almost no chance of winning. Judi Dench and Meryl Streep both have a decent chance of winning, mostly due to name recognition, and the latter given a huge boost by the fact that pretty much every woman in the Western hemisphere saw The Devil Wears Prada. Kate Winslet… I love her, but it’s not her year. The other women carry far too much clout to allow her much chance of winning. She’ll have to wait for her 6th nom for another shot for the gold.

My Pick: Helen Mirren, The Queen

Predicted Winner: Helen Mirren, The Queen

Best Supporting Actor:

This category, like Best Actor and Picture, has pretty much narrowed itself down to 3 top choices, leaving Jackie Earle Haley and Djimon Hounsou out in the cold. I think that Eddie Murphy will probably walk away with the award, granted Norbit hasn’t tainted his public image too much (though you’d think the man wouldn’t have a career at all after I-Spy, The Adventures of Pluto Nash, Showtime, et. al.). My personal pick, however, is Alan Arkin. His performance in Little Miss Sunshine was one of the high points of a great movie, and, like O’Toole, really deserves it. Additionally, I think Mark Wahlberg has a chance too. Since Boogie Nights, he’s really proven himself as a quite fine actor, and I think it’s about time he’s gotten some recognition.

My Pick: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

Predicted Winner: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Best Supporting Actress:

This one is quite a big predicament, in my opinion. I think that all of them have really, really, REALLY great performances, and in any other year, would all have a pretty good chance of winning seperately, save for maybe Cate Blanchett, who I really think is consistently a frigid bitch in all of her movies (she was pretty terrible in Babel, IMHO). American-Idol-reject-cum-actress Jennifer Hudson will probably win. However, my personal pick is a three way tie for the remaining women: Abigail Breslin, Adriana Barazza, and Rinko Kikuchi. The latter two played very, very interesting characters in Babel, with Barazza giving a truly heart-wrenching performance as a down-on-her-luck Mexican babysitter, and Kikuchi playing a deaf-mute Japanese teenager looking hard for love. Breslin, on the other hand, acted beyond her years in Little Miss Sunshine, adding so much charm to the film, and giving a performance that some veteran actors would be hard-pressed to match.

My Pick: Barrazza (Babel), Kikuchi (Babel), Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)

Predicted Winner: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Best Director:

Again, Children of Men gets shut out again. Who can honestly watch the now-infamous nine-minute chase scene and not be completely flabbergasted that one man could so accurately capture such an intense experience? So, beyond that, I think that Clint Eastwood, Alejando Gonzáles Iñárritu, and Martin Scorsese have the best chances of picking up the prize. Eastwood’s been hot over the past few years, and really I think that Letters from Iwo Jima is by far his best work thus far. Iñárritu is a fantastic director, and he did some really incredible work on Babel. However, it’s the big man I’m rooting for tonight. Scorsese deserves an Oscar more than anyone nominated this year. He should have won for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and Goodfellas without question, but got shafted each and every year. Though The Departed isn’t as good as those masterpieces, it’s definitely a solid enough film to warrant this being his year. Needless to say, he’s by far my favorite pick to win, and God willing, he will, finally.

My Pick: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Predicted Winner: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Those are the only ones I’m going to tackle. With about half an hour left until the awards, I really need to wrap it up. But yeah, there you go.